The 2026 NBA Draft is shaping up to be one of the strangest in league history — not because of who's in it, but because of who chose to stay out. Only 71 players declared as early entry candidates this year. That's the lowest total since 2003, and it represents a fundamental shift in how young basketball players think about money.
Blame NIL. Blame the transfer portal. Blame the fact that a star college player can now earn more in the NCAA than he would as a late first-round pick — without having to share a locker room with a 35-year-old veteran who calls him "rookie" for nine months straight.
In 2025, 106 underclassmen declared for the draft. This year, that number cratered to 71. The reason isn't a talent drought — this freshman class, headlined by AJ Dybantsa (BYU), Darryn Peterson (Kansas), and Cameron Boozer (Duke), is loaded. The reason is that more players are looking at the financial equation and deciding: "I can make more staying in college."
That's not a sentence anyone would have uttered five years ago. Before NIL, declaring for the draft was a no-brainer for any player with a pulse and a jump shot. Now? A late first-round rookie makes about $3.6 million in Year 1 — before taxes, agent fees, and the cost of moving to a new city. Meanwhile, a star college player can pull in $1-2 million annually from NIL deals while staying on campus, finishing their degree, and avoiding the financial bloodbath of NBA deductions.
🎓 The New Math: $3.6 million NBA rookie salary, minus 37% federal tax, state tax, agent fees, and escrow = roughly $1.6 million take-home. Or: $1.5 million in NIL deals as a college star, zero relocation costs, and everyone on campus treats you like a god. For some players, the math isn't even close.
The most dramatic example of this trend is Michigan's Elliot Cadeau. The sophomore point guard led the Wolverines to their first national championship since 1989, was named Most Outstanding Player of the Final Four after scoring 19 points in the title game against UConn, and was widely considered a potential first-round pick.
He declared for the draft. He went through the pre-draft process, attended workouts, received feedback. Then — just weeks before the June 23-24 draft at Barclays Center — he withdrew his name and announced he was returning to Michigan for his senior season.
"The NBA Draft process was very beneficial for him," Michigan coach Dusty May said. "He's able to get some feedback, go to some individual workouts and be prepared to go through the full experience next year." Translation: Cadeau tested the waters, realized he'd go 25th instead of 15th, and decided another year of NIL money and campus celebrity was better than riding the bench in Sacramento.
Michigan has been reloading around him, adding nine newcomers — three from the transfer portal, two incoming freshmen, and four high school seniors. All-America forward Yaxel Lendeborg exhausted his eligibility, while Aday Mara and Morez Johnson Jr. declared for the draft. Cadeau will be the centerpiece of a title defense.
While the draft class shrinks, the transfer portal is exploding. Tennessee has assembled the No. 2-ranked transfer class in the nation, headlined by VCU forward Christian Fermin, who committed on May 14. Fermin reunites with former VCU teammate Terrence Hill Jr. in Knoxville, giving the Vols a loaded roster for 2026-27.
The portal is essentially college basketball's version of free agency — except players don't have agents (well, some do), there's no salary cap, and the "contracts" are NIL deals structured through collectives. It's messy, it's chaotic, and it's producing some of the most talented rosters in NCAA history.
Other notable portal moves: Juke Harris (Wake Forest) committed to Vanderbilt after averaging 21.4 points per game. Milan Momcilovic, an All-Big 12 selection at Iowa State, entered the portal and declared for the draft simultaneously — hedging his bets like a veteran stock trader.
For the 71 players currently in the draft pool, the clock is ticking. The NCAA deadline to withdraw and maintain college eligibility is May 27 at 11:59 p.m. ET. The NBA's own withdrawal deadline is June 13, but if you miss the NCAA window, you're a pro whether you get drafted or not.
Players like Dailyn Swain (Texas wing, projected first-rounder) told reporters they're "two feet in" on turning pro. But for the 42 players who received combine invites, the feedback they're getting right now will determine whether they stay in the draft or return to campus.
Several potential first-round picks — including Thomas Haugh (Florida), Braylon Mullins (UConn), and Patrick Ngongba II (Duke) — already opted to not enter the pre-draft process at all. They saw the math and decided another year of NIL earnings was the smarter play.
This draft represents a fundamental shift in how young athletes think about money. For the first time, players have a real choice: go pro and start paying taxes on a rookie salary, or stay in school and earn NIL income that's often competitive with — or superior to — what a late first-round or second-round pick would net after deductions.
The BreadTruth calculator supports NCAA (NIL Income) as a league option. If you're a student athlete weighing the draft vs. NIL decision, run the numbers both ways: input your projected NIL earnings under NCAA, then input a projected rookie salary under NBA. See which number actually puts more money in your pocket.
Further reading: NIL Income Tax Guide · From NIL to Pro: What Changes About Your Taxes · NBA Draft 2026 Financial Guide · Agent Commission Across Leagues
Weighing the draft vs. another year of NIL? Compare your after-tax earnings side by side:
Use the Free Calculator →Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, tax, or legal advice. All calculations are estimates based on publicly available data. Always consult a qualified professional.
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